Miss the monthly peak by a single interval and you pay for it for thirty days. PHALANX is built to not miss it, without wasting charge you didn't need.
It works out how likely a peak really is from your own interval data, not a rule of thumb. Peak-miss tail estimation by multiple-importance sampling.
Missing a peak is far more expensive than holding charge you didn't need. PHALANX is tuned for exactly that asymmetry. Asymmetric-cost dispatch objective.
It reads the load and temperature forecast to see the peak coming. Consumes the HELIOS forecast distribution.
During onboarding we're designed to validate the saving on your own interval history, so you see how it holds up before you rely on it. Walk-forward validation on your own load.
Our validation methodology is a walk-forward backtest against standard baselines with Diebold–Mariano significance testing — designed to run on your own history during onboarding so you can see how it performs before you rely on it.
These are the real methods behind PHALANX, each in one plain line. We name the method as a credibility signal — we don't publish the recipe.
Estimates the true chance of a peak from your own load, not a heuristic.
Weights a missed peak far more heavily than a needless hold.